On this page you will find the topics for each day’s class, along with the pre-class reading/video assignment, and the in-class activity.

Week 1

Monday 1/23

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Course Logistics

  • Statistical Models

  • Introduction to Statistical Inference

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • Read Section 7.1 in Probability and Statistics (DeGroot and Schervish)

    • You do not need to submit reflection questions for this reading.

Class Activity

Wednesday 1/25

Lecture Notes (These notes represent a summary of Wednesday’s class discussion)

Topics

  • Prior and Posterior Distributions

  • The Likelihood Function

  • Core definitions for statistical inference:

    • Random Variables, Data, Samples Spaces, Parameters, Parameter Spaces

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Friday 1/27

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Prior and Posterior Distributions

  • The Likelihood Function

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 2

Monday 1/30

Lecture Notes (Same notes as Friday)

Topics

  • Computing posterior distributions

  • The likelihood function

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • No new daily assignment for Monday

Wednesday 2/1

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • The Likelihood Function

  • Conjugate Prior Distributions

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Friday 2/3

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Conjugate Prior Distributions

    • Beta and Binomial Connection

    • Poisson and Gamma Connections

    • Normal and Normal Connections

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • DA 2-3

    • The due date for this daily assignment has been changed to Monday, 2/6, to reflect the fact that we’ll talk more about Section 7.3 on Friday.

Week 3

Monday 2/6

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Bayes Estimators

    • Loss Functions

    • Properties of the Bayes estimator

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • DA 2-3

    • This DA was originally due Friday 2-3 and now is due Monday 2-6. If you already completed the DA for Friday 2-3, there is nothing additional you need to complete.

Wednesday 2/8

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Maximum Likelihood Estimator

  • Example MLEs:

    • Normal, known variance, unknown mean

    • Bernoulli

    • Gamma

    • Limitations of MLEs

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Friday 2/10

Topics

  • Properties of MLEs

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 4

Monday 2/13

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Properties of Estimators

    • Invariance of MLE

    • Consistency

    • Bias, Variance, Mean Squared Error

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Wednesday 2/15

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • The Method of Moments

  • Comparing Estimators

  • Properties of Estimators

    • Consistency

    • Bias, Variance, Mean Squared Error

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • DA 2-15

    • The due date for this assignment has been moved to Friday 2/17 at 11am.

Friday 2/17

Topics

  • Using R to Compute and Visualize Statistics

  • The ggplot2package

  • The Method of Moments

  • Comparing Estimators

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • DA 2-15

    • This DA was previously assigned for Wednesday 2/15, but had due date moved to Friday 2/17

Week 5

Monday 2/20

Lecture Notes

  • Here is the whiteboard used during class today

  • Here is a link to the recorded lecture video (Grinnell Webex login required)

Topics

  • The Method of Moments

  • Comparing Estimators

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • DA 2-15

    • This DA was previously assigned for Wednesday 2/15, but had due date moved to Friday 2/17 and then to Monday 2/20

Wednesday 2/22

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • The Sampling Distribution of an Estimator

  • The ggplot2package

  • Comparing Estimators

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • DA 2-22

  • Additionally, if you are unfamiliar with the ggplot2 R package, or if you’d like more practice, complete this tutorial before class.

Friday 2/24

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • The Chi-Squared Distribution

  • The joint distribution of the sample mean and sample variance

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 6

Monday 2/27

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • The \(t\) distribution

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Wednesday 3/1

Topics

  • The \(t\) distribution

    • Using the \(t\) distribution to calculate probabilities

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • No new reading assignment.

Friday 3/3

Topics

  • Review for Midterm 1

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 7

Monday 3/6

Topics

  • Creating data visualizations using ggplot2

  • Vectors and Data Frames in R

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • None;

    • Although, if you are unfamiliar with the ggplot2 R package, or if you’d like more practice, complete this tutorial before class.

Wednesday 3/8

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Confidence Intervals

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Friday 3/10

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Advanced Confidence Intervals

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 8

Monday 3/13

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Examples of General Confidence Intervals

  • The Sample Distribution Function

  • Bootstrapping

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Wednesday 3/15

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • The Non-Parametric Bootstrap

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Friday 3/17

Topics

  • Bootstrap Confidence Intervals

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • No DA needs to be submitted for Friday;

    • However, an excerpt of Sections 5.1 - 5.4 of Chihara and Hesterberg’s Mathematical Statistics with Resampling and R, 2e has been added to the PWeb site (Documents -> Bootstrapping); reviewing these sections before and after class on Friday may be helpful, as they provide an alternative perspective on bootstrapping, as well as an example of implementing bootstrapping code in R.

Spring Break

3/18 - 4/2


Week 9

Monday 4/3

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Bayesian Analysis of samples from a Normal distribution

  • Bayesian Credible Intervals

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Wednesday 4/5

Topics

  • More about Bayesian Interval Estimates

  • Examples of Credible Intervals

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • No new DA; however, it may be helpful to reread Section 8.6

Friday 4/7

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Introduction to Hypothesis Tests

  • Significance Level

  • Power

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 10

Monday 4/10

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Significance Level

  • Power

  • \(p\)-values

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Wednesday 4/12

Topics

  • Significance Level

  • \(p\)-values

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • No new DA; however, it may be helpful to reread the pages in Section 9.1 assigned for Monday 4-10

Friday 4/14

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Equivalence of Confidence Sets and Hypothesis Tests

  • The likelihood ratio test

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 11

Monday 4/17

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests

  • The \(t\)-test

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Wednesday 4/19

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • The \(t\)-test

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • No new reading assignment; but review Section 9.5 from Monday.

Friday 4/21

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • The two sample \(t\)-test

  • The \(F\)-distribution

  • The \(F\)-test for variances of Normal distributions

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 12

Monday 4/24

Topics

  • Review for Midterm 2

  • The F-Test

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • No assigned reading, but please complete this following DA indicating topics you’d like to review during class:

Wednesday 4/26

No class; Working differently day.

Friday 4/28

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • The Method of Least Squares

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 13

Monday 5/1

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Linear Regression

  • Distribution of Least Squares Estimators

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Wednesday 5/3

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Inference for Simple Linear Regression

  • The joint distribution of \(\hat \beta_0, \hat \beta_1, \hat \sigma^2\)

  • Hypothesis Tests for Regression Coefficients

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

Friday 5/5

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Inference for Simple Linear Regression

  • Hypothesis Tests for Regression Coefficients

  • Confidence Intervals for Regression Coefficients

  • Analysis of Residuals

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class


Week 14

Monday 5/8

Lecture Notes

Topics

  • Inference for Simple Linear Regression

  • Confidence Intervals for Regression Coefficients

  • Analysis of Residuals

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • DA 5-5 DUE MONDAY 5/8 (this DA was originally assigned for Friday)

Wednesday 5/10

Topics

  • Multivariate Linear Regression

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • No reading assignment needs to be submitted. However, we’ll talk about some elements of Section 11.5, so it is recommended you skim this section before class.

Friday 5/12

Topics

  • Peer Feedback for Research Project

Daily Assignment

Note that the listed reading assignments should be completed prior to class

  • No assigned reading. However, bring a short sample of your research project draft (2 paragraphs - 1 page) about which you would like to receive peer feedback. Bring either a paper copy of the draft, or be prepared to distribute the draft via email.